Waiting for Great Sailing Weather to Australia

New Caledonia Sunset

All footprints in the sand are subject to the incoming tide.  Looks like our optimistic plans to get to Brisbane in time for a scheduled flight home are subject to the incoming tide.

Unfortunately, we will need to postpone and reschedule our trip to California a bit as the weather window is not cooperating for a departure from New Caledonia to Australia for several days.  It's disappointing as we hoped to attend a high school class reunion, but first things first.....and that's getting to Australia in one piece and with peace of mind.  We want a great sail to cap the season!  After our last trip, we need an excellent trip.

Deciding to go or not to go always seems to be a dilemma, so we sought marine weather expertise from professionals and got the report this morning. It pretty much confirmed what we had seen on the weather maps.   Had we been able to leave by October 6, our time frame would be in tact, but no, that's not to be, and we refuse to push it.   Thought you as vicarious crew would like to see what a report looks like.
We usually find that reports are understated and plan for 40% more to the extreme.

Dear Rozlynn and Russell, departure on the 6th looks rough at the end of your trip.

Summary:

1) as in your previous experiences, the latest forecast model consensus shows departure from Noumea around 00utc on Thursday, the 6th, and your trip toward Brisbane in some shifty but favorable conditions until your last 48 hours

• then expecting a strong cold front to push E-NE off the Aussie coast with SW winds forecast to build to 20-30kts during your last 24 hours toward Brisbane and building seas up to at least 8-10ft out of the S-SW

2) presently, a weakening low (around 998MB) is spiraling just W of Auckland

• keeping a strong S-SW wind and swell between Brisbane and Noumea

3) during Wed and Thurs, the 5th and 6th, utc time, high pressure is forecast to slide E off the eastern Aussie coast

• which will help to ease the winds and seas along your route
• probably easing these winds to light and variable during Friday the 7th as you would pass through the center of the high pressure

4) in this very active weather pattern, we are expecting 2 lows/cold fronts to push off the central Aussie coast from this weekend into the beginning of next week

• by 00utc on Saturday the 8th, the first low is forecast to organize near Coffs Harbour, building and backing the winds from the N to the NW, along your route
•  think these winds speeds will average between 10-20kts with seas up to 6-8ft
• which should be manageable with the correct routing

5) but the main concern for departure from Noumea at the end of this week is the second low/cold front

• the low is forecast to push just E of Sydney around 18utc on Monday the 10th
• by 00utc on the 11th, the low is expected to slide to the SE as the cold front pushes just E of Brisbane
• probably bringing W-SW winds of 20-30kts offshore of Brisbane as you are about 24 hours out of Brisbane
• and building the seas to at least 8-10ft in the blustery conditions

6) took a look at delaying your departure about 24 hours but this would only put you into the gusty SW winds and seas for a longer period of time

7) we can take another look at the weather window beginning next week.  Let us know what you would like to do.  

**********

Test your weather skills and see if you can find us the right conditions!

If you are interested in taking a look at a more graphic picture of the forecast, we've been connecting to the Aussie government site.  The interactive maps forecast a model for about 5 days.  We use these 3 charts primarily:  1) combined sea and swell (light to dark blue is good, greens and beyond not so good)  We would also prefer a swell from the southeast (stern quarter push) rather than from the south (beam rollers), pressure and precipitation (nice consistent high - no rain or squalls), wind direction and speed maps (looking for 15-25 knots of wind from the southeast).  

We also look at the 4 day forecast charts.  Tuesday of next week is beginning to look good as a takeoff point.  Note the wind and sea swell direction.  Won't know what the end trip will look like until we get closer to Tuesday though.  Keep a watch on it for us and let us know when you would leave.

So for right now, we're hanging around and enjoying the sights!  We've posted some new photos of New Caledonia explorations.  

All is well with the 2 Sail R's on S/V Worrall Wind